Retirelens Calculator

What withdrawal rate can my retirement savings support?

Stress‑test a classic inflation‑stepped spending rule against your balance, horizon, and assumed return. See the highest initial withdrawal rate that still clears your last year in this model, then compare your chosen rate to a 4% benchmark path.

Max sustainable (model)

Initial withdrawal % of starting balance

5.20%

At 6.0% return and 2.5% annual spending growth over 30 years, this is the highest starting rate that never runs out of portfolio in the simplified year‑end model.

Your rate vs. max

4.00% (1.20% under)

Year-one withdrawal

$40,000

Your planning assumptions

Withdrawals follow the usual academic pattern: take a percentage of the starting balance in year one, then raise that dollar amount by inflation each year. Returns apply once per year after the withdrawal. Not historical simulation.

Retirement portfolio

Your initial withdrawal rate4.00%

Planning horizon30 years

Expected annual return (net)6.0%

Reduce this slider to approximate fees and conservative expectations.

Annual spending inflation2.5%

Your scenario

Portfolio survives the full 30 years with about $1,326,715 left at the end.

Portfolio balance: your rate vs. 4%

Solid line = your selected rate; dashed = classic 4% initial rate with the same return and inflation assumptions.

4% initial rate
Your rate

Ending balance by starting rate

Same return and inflation path; bars show portfolio left after 30 years (zero if depleted earlier).

What this means

Under a flat 6.0% return and 2.5% withdrawal growth, the model caps a sustainable starting rate near 5.20%. Your 4.00% choice withdraws $40,000 in year one — which this simplified path can sustain.

Historical studies like Bengen and Trinity showed how often past U.S. markets supported various rates; they are not guarantees of the future. Use this page to understand sensitivity to return and inflation, then stress‑test with a professional using richer data.

Year-by-year (your rate)

Nominal withdrawal and end‑of‑year balance after return.

Year	Withdrawal	End balance
1	$40,000	$1,017,600
2	$41,000	$1,035,196
3	$42,025	$1,052,761
4	$43,076	$1,070,267
5	$44,153	$1,087,681
6	$45,256	$1,104,970
7	$46,388	$1,122,097
8	$47,547	$1,139,023
9	$48,736	$1,155,704
10	$49,955	$1,172,095
11	$51,203	$1,188,145
12	$52,483	$1,203,801
13	$53,796	$1,219,006
14	$55,140	$1,233,697
15	$56,519	$1,247,809
16	$57,932	$1,261,270
17	$59,380	$1,274,003
18	$60,865	$1,285,926
19	$62,386	$1,296,952
20	$63,946	$1,306,987
21	$65,545	$1,315,929
22	$67,183	$1,323,670
23	$68,863	$1,330,096
24	$70,584	$1,335,082
25	$72,349	$1,338,497
26	$74,158	$1,340,199
27	$76,012	$1,340,039
28	$77,912	$1,337,854
29	$79,860	$1,333,474
30	$81,856	$1,326,715

Plan more than your portfolio

Your finances are one lens. A confident retirement also needs clarity on health, purpose, relationships, and legacy — the same pillars we use across Retirelens.

Financial Readiness

Know where you stand and what to do next with your money.

74% of planners reported satisfaction with retirement income vs. 43% of non-planners (Goldman Sachs)

Health & Wellness

Secure solid coverage, stay ahead with preventive care and healthy habits a staple.

68% of adults ages 50–64 said they were concerned that federal policy changes could affect their health insurance coverage. (University of Michigan)

Lifestyle & Purpose

Shape days you look forward to, with steps to get there.

Research shows that a stronger sense of purpose is associated with lower mortality risk among adults over age 50. (American Medical Association)

Social Connections

Strengthen relationships and build a support circle.

A longitudinal study of adults aged 65+ found that older adults with more diverse social networks had a lower risk of death and better cognitive and physical function than those with less diverse networks. (Chico Health Aging Project)

Legacy Planning

Organize your assets and document so your family isn't left guessing.

Without a proper estate plan, more than half of families experience disputes or have assets end up under court control. (LegalShield)

How this calculator works

We implement the common academic withdrawal rule: year‑one spending equals your starting portfolio times the initial withdrawal rate; each subsequent year’s spending equals that first dollar amount grown by inflation. At the end of each year we subtract the withdrawal, then grow the remainder by your expected return.

The “maximum sustainable” rate is found by binary search: the largest initial percentage such that the portfolio can fund every inflation‑indexed withdrawal through your horizon without balance going negative in this discrete annual model. If even a tiny rate fails (for example return below inflation forever), the reported maximum will be zero.

This is not a Monte Carlo success probability, does not vary stock/bond mix, and ignores taxes, fees, RMDs, and irregular cash flows. It complements — rather than replaces — research such as Bengen, the Trinity study, and modern safe‑withdrawal updates from Morningstar and others.

Help

Frequently asked questions

Straight answers to common questions about this calculator.